Using Predictive Analytics for Thanksgiving Stewardship

Thanksgiving marks one of the most important giving moments of the year. It sits right between fall appeals, Giving Tuesday, and the final push toward year-end. For fundraisers, this window offers an opportunity to connect gratitude with generosity. The key is knowing where to focus. That’s where predictive analytics come in.

At Windfall, I’ve seen how a smart use of data and predictive giving models can transform a campaign. When organizations harness the right insights, they can reach the right donors at the right time with a message that lands.

Turning Data into Direction

Predictive analytics gives fundraisers a head start. Instead of guessing who might respond to a Thanksgiving appeal, teams can rely on Propensity to Give scores that combine wealth, career, and philanthropic data.

These scores reveal where to invest energy. Some donors are ready for a major gift conversation. Others might be primed for a re-engagement or a smaller seasonal ask. The goal is to transition from broad outreach to targeted intent.

Windfall’s models analyze signals like property ownership, investment indicators, giving history, and career milestones. Each donor and prospect gets a dynamic score that helps teams prioritize calls, personalize messages, and align follow-up cadence with capacity and interest.

Building Smarter Segments

Segmentation makes all the difference. Rather than blanketing your file with one message, predictive insights let you organize your audience into meaningful groups, such as:

• Major gift prospects with high propensity scores
• Loyal annual donors who give steadily year after year
• Emerging wealth prospects who’ve recently experienced liquidity events
• Lapsed supporters showing signs of renewed engagement

With these segments in hand, Thanksgiving campaigns become more strategic. For example, you can focus gratitude-themed outreach on loyal supporters while reserving a personalized touch for new or high-potential donors. Predictive data helps you avoid fatigue while amplifying the voices most likely to give.

Bringing the Donor Journey to Life

Every donor journey should feel personal. Predictive analytics help tailor that experience across channels. A Thanksgiving strategy might look something like this:

• Custom emails for top donors highlighting recent impact stories
• Social campaigns that celebrate gratitude and recognize community support
• Invitation calls to new wealth households ahead of Giving Tuesday events
• Warm re-engagement letters to lapsed donors

As consumer wealth shifts through the year, Windfall’s enrichment ensures your segments stay current. This real-time visibility lets fundraisers pivot quickly, especially when market conditions or donor behavior change close to the holidays.

Understanding Your End-of-Year Ask

Before crafting the perfect message of gratitude, your team needs crystal-clear alignment on the ultimate end-of-year fundraising goal. Your Thanksgiving stewardship is not just a kind gesture; it's a strategic step that should position donors for the ask they will receive in December. Predictive analytics helps you identify who to talk to; this step defines what you will ask them for.

Positioning your stories and gratitude in a way that naturally leads to your primary goal is crucial. When your message of thanks reinforces the goal of your upcoming appeal, you ensure that every touchpoint is rooted in intentionality, strengthening the donor relationship and maximizing year-end results:

• Goal: Increase the Number of Recurring Donors. If your focus is converting one-time givers to reliable monthly supporters, your story should highlight the sustained impact made possible by the recurring donor program in the past year. Share a success story from the past year that was made possible by the predictable funding stream of recurring gifts.
  
  
• Goal: Fund Program Expansion. If your year-end campaign is designed to raise funds to expand your programming, dedicate your stories to that specific program. Tell a powerful narrative about the impact the program currently makes in the community and clearly articulate what the next level of impact will look like once it's fully funded.
  
  
• Goal: Secure Major Gifts. For the major gift prospects with high propensity scores², the personalized stewardship touch should reinforce their unique potential for transformational giving. This message is less about a general appeal and more about celebrating the impact their current level of support sustains, positioning them for the major ask to come.
  

Best Practices for the Season

A few tips for maximizing predictive outreach before Thanksgiving:

• Refresh your data. Wealth and career signals evolve fast. Update predictive scores before launching end-of-year campaigns.
  
  
• Use multiple channels. Combine personalized email, direct mail, and social engagement grounded in your predictive segments.
  
  
• Visualize your reach. Create donor heatmaps to see where high-propensity supporters live.
  
  
• Test your approach. Try gratitude-driven versus impact-focused messages to see which resonates best with each segment.
  
  
• Track results. Measure conversion, average gift, and retention. Feed those learnings back into your model for the next cycle.

By putting these steps into motion now, you can ensure your outreach is both strategic and timely, setting the stage for a successful season of giving.

What’s Next for Predictive Fundraising

Data-driven fundraising continues to prove its worth. Studies show that the average affluent household now contributes more than $33,000 annually, which is over 10 times that of the general population. What’s most significant for fundraisers, however, is that "expert" donors who consider themselves highly knowledgeable about charitable giving are more likely to give.

When supporters receive relevant and timely messages, grounded in genuine appreciation, they respond. Predictive analytics makes that possible by combining data insights with your organization’s understanding of your constituents.

Final Thoughts

Thanksgiving isn’t about asking for more. It’s about gratitude, reflection, and strengthening the relationships that sustain your mission. With Windfall’s predictive insights, fundraisers can use data to understand intent, anticipate generosity, and create experiences that feel personal and genuine.

As fundraising becomes more data-informed, predictive analytics will remain a guidepost, not a replacement for human connection. It provides the insight needed to approach every conversation and act of stewardship with greater understanding and empathy.

Sources:

• Bank of America. 2025 Study of Philanthropy: Charitable Giving by Affluent Households
• Windfall. Market Analysis and Predictive Giving Trends